Is Horse The Next Black Caviar?

Yo Yo Everyone! Feels good to be back. For the last week and a half i’ve been fishing for the all mighty Barramundi up north on the Moyle River. My first barra fishing trip was a massive success and i caught a shit load of Barra, including two monster fish, a 92cm and a 95cm Barra. If you love fishing then you have to go NT barra fishing, it’s unparalleled.

Anyway enough about fishing let’s get into some DT. As a result of my trip i missed the last lockout (no phone/internet connection where i was fishing at). So as a result i missed the Horse. But, let’s look at how i went this week.

This week i scored a very juicy 2,358, ranking 1,154 for the round. With wins across the board in all my leagues it was a good week for the team. I also managed to dodge the weekly injury carnage.

As you can see i’m quite pleased seeing as i didn’t get to cash in on Horse’s initial price rise. Which leads my to the question, is it too late to jump on the Horse?

The Horse made 96k for his owners this week and was the highest price rise, surpassing Barlow’s record. The Horse scored well even with the inclusion of Ablett in the team and, i’m spewing i missed him. But, all great DT’ers have to accept the present and move past it to make the most of the future. Now, i have two options this week, 1. Let the Horse ride off into the distance or 2. Run after the Horse and jump on even though he’s left the starting gates.

So, is it possible jump on the Horse even though i won’t gain from the initial 96k that he’s made? Will his high scoring continue? Is he the next Black Cavier? Can i afford to miss him?

I’m running a 3 premo and 1 mid pricer (McCarthy) midfield and this strategy needs solid rooks to keep up with those 4/5 premo mid teams. Also, it’s time we start offloading the majority of our GWS rooks as we edge closer to those dreaded multi-bye rounds, so from a bye perspective it might make sense to still get Horsely in.

I’m in two worlds at the moment and the question being asked…. Is It Too Late To Jump On The Horse?

Or am i slightly mad to even think it? Let us know what you think in the comments bellow.

Slightly Mad – The SPA Matrix

Alright. Where to begin?? The past few weeks have been a true test to coaches around the country. We’ve been thrown curveballs every week and are constantly being tested by the DT Gods. The other week I wrote an article on Smokies (I hope you picked up Stanton, I know I wish I had). That article was a bit rushed and was generic (my apologies). I hope that this one makes up for it.

Round Recap

I scored 2010 on the weekend, and increased my overall rank by 5k to consolidate my team in the top 3%. Now, I haven’t had a blinder of a start to the season, but I’ve been consistent (I haven’t scored below 2000) and am travelling in the right direction. However, I’m still waiting a massive round score (congrats to Benny) to get me right up there. With these last few weeks who knows what’s going to happen. One thing that is on my mind at the moment is my risky 3 premo mid strategy, and with Ablett’s injury concerns I’m in between a rock and a hard place. But let’s get started on the article:

THE SPA MATRIX

Over the later half of the week I’ve been absent from the blog. Let me tell you why. I just completed my degree in marketing and management. Now, I love DT like many of you reading this, and even in the last few weeks of my degree when I was studying for my final exam (ever) I was constantly applying marketing theories from class to my DT. And, as a result, have pioneered a new matrix called the “SPA Matrix” (Strength, Performance and Attractiveness Matrix). The SPA matrix is a combination of a GE Matrix and a BCG Matrix (Google them if you want to know more, however I’ll be explaining the important stuff below). The SPA Matrix I created measures the strength/performance of a player (ie. How well a player scores) vs the players attractiveness (i.e high scores, cash generation)

What You Need To Know

Stars: Strong performance and high attractiveness. These players are consistently putting in big scores. You expect them to be one of the best performing players each week. Stars are your well performing premiums. The same rules that applies to premiums apply to these players.

Question Marks: Question marks cover a range of different players. Some of these are, underperforming premiums, mid prices, well performing rooks etc. These players aren’t yet a star, may be better than a cash cow or slowly turning into a dog. They are volatile and may be inconsistent in their scoring.

Cash Cows: These players produce average scores but they are attractive players (due to their low BE and their cash generation). We expect low-medium scores from these players, and we know they are only in our teams to generate cash to afford stars (premiums).

Dogs: Dogs are averaging performing players and have a low attractiveness. Dogs cover a range of different players, such as, non-playing rooks, rooks with a high BE, injured players and possibly suspended players. Dogs are the players you trade out, or are waiting to trade out.

The Arrows: The arrows represent the direction that the player is heading in for the next round. If there is no arrow, there is minimum/ little change expected (or it is hard to predict at the moment from that player) on the SPA Matrix.

Green: KEEP/BUY

Keep these players. Don’t trade them at the moment. Possibly buy some of these players (in particular stars and green cash cows).

Orange:  HOLD

Hold these players. These players haven’t showed you enough to get rid of them yet. They may go either way. For rooks/cows, they haven’t peaked yet.

Red: HARVEST/SELL

These are the players that aren’t going well. They may not be playing at all, they may be rooks with a high BE, or players with an LTI. You are looking at getting rid of them, they are dead weight and dragging your team down.

The SPA Matrix Itself

Here’s an SPA Matrix for my team “Slights Trippers”.

Stars

As you can see the 3 premo mids that I started with (Ablett, Boyd and Pendles) are stars. All are averaging at (c’mon pendles) or over 100 points a game. Ablett has an arrow shifting his position into a question mark due to his injury concerns. Fyfe is a star but his injury concerns have also pushed him into the question mark category. Delidio and Goddard are also stars, with Franklin just fully fitting into the star category. Franklin is a strong player, but we all know he can do better than a piss poor 76.

Stars (You Were So Close)

Robinson and Sidebottom are well into their way of becoming a star. They are both averaging over 100 and are showing very promising signs. They are pretty much stars. Both Hargrave and Waters are also becoming stars and are looking good to be potential keepers (Phew that takes a bit of pressure off the defence.

Question Marks (Green)

Martin is a green question mark, he was picked as a premium but has been underperforming. He scored a 96 on the weekend and I’m tipping him to start performing better and start knocking on the door of the stars. McCarthy is a mid pricer that has been performing relatively well and, in my case, earning me some cash. I haven’t seen enough of this guy yet to know which direction he’s heading in. Broughton, the bone of everyone’s contention, finds himself as an attractive question mark (at the moment). If I could create a new category for Broughton it’d be “The Magic 8 Ball”; you shake the magic ball each week and hope for the best (if only we had Lyons Magic 8 Ball). Giles has been a highly attractive player. He still maintains a low BE and is pumping out some good scores. He is on the up.

Cash Cows (Green)

My Green Cash Cows are: Hall, Greene, Shiel, Stephenson, Ellis, Bugg and Redden. All of these players have a negative BE and will earn my team more cash. Culling these cows now means that you won’t get maximum bang for your buck.

Cash Cows (Orange)

Both Devon Smith and Magner will earn me cash this week. If Magner maintains his newly found tagging role that has seen his scores drastically reduced, and with a BE of 22 we may see him become a Dog very soon. Smith still has a negative BE (-7) and a good score this round/subsequent -BE will push him into becoming a Green Cash Cow once again.

Dogs (Red)

I have three Dogs at the moment. The first one is Kennedy (I may have been a bit harsh here as he has a BE of 27 but if he dishes out another 41 he will be close to culling). The next dog I have is Dickson. Dickson has a BE of 1, but the fact that he is a non-playing rook means he is earning nothing for my team (hopefully he get selected this weekend). My last rook is Darley. While I do believe he would score well if he got selected he has been my dead weight. I have carried him along and he is weighing my team down (He’s not earning me money if he isn’t playing).

Now What?

So with my SPA Matrix I know I have to keep a close eye on news about Ablett, Fyfe and Shaw as these players have injury concerns (I probably should have put these players in a different colour). I need to get some more premo midfielders in, and it’s killing me having only 3 (now possibly 2 with Ablett). Also I need to think about my Dogs and how/ when is the right time to get rid of them. Team news become very valuable when using this matrix. Technically I shouldn’t trade Dickson yet (BE of 1), however if he isn’t being named I might have to trade him to Trelor or old Mac. I am already carrying 1 dead weight (cough * Darley * cough) and might not be able to afford carrying a second. I really wish I had of picked up Clarke instead. Oh well, such is DT.

The Wrap

So there you have it, “The SPA Matrix”. You can fit any player into this matrix to give you a visual idea of how they are going. You can mentally plot players on this matrix or you can physically draw it up if you want. Doing it for your current team will allow you to see who to keep/ buy, hold and who to harvest/sell. Doing it for potential players will allow you to see who the top prospects for your team are. By only looking trading dogs (injured players/peaked rooks etc.) you can maximise your trades and not waste them. It also ensures that you get the best out of your question marks.

The SPA matrix is a very powerful tool. It is what I use to ensure I make the most of my limited trades. Some of you probably do this without even knowing it (I know I did). The SPA Matrix is a way to visually understand and utilise that strategy.

Parting Words

Good luck to everyone this week. May you navigate your team through the carnage as best as you can. Also, if you found this and the other articles helpful spread the word about the blog. And as always, feel free to hit me up in the comments below and/or on twitter @Slighthawk

Slightly Mad – Smokies

Time for another new author! A lot of you will have seen this bloke around the forums, and I’ve gotten to know him pretty well from the dream-stats.com chat – please welcome to BennyDT, Slighthawk! Last year I got to see what a great DT mind this man possesses, and couldn’t get him to contribute to the blog quickly enough. Heed his words, he knows his stuff. Slight will be doing up a post every now and then, possibly weekly, on a topic that he feels is pertinent to Dream Team coaches at the time. This week he’s focused on smokies, so take in what he says – especially the forwards and midfielders (for the Fyfe trade). Also, if you have some support, questions or constructive criticism that you’d like Slight to see, make sure to comment! Twitterverse – @Slighthawk

For those of you who don’t know me, I’m Slight Hawk and coach of ‘Slights Trippers’. Today I’m trying to find that smoking gun, those players that have been overlooked by the masses. Let’s face it, if you do what everyone else does and be a sheep then you ain’t gonna get anywhere in DT. You gotta risk it to get the biscuit!

The current smokey I have in my team is John McCarthy. McCarthy seems to be taking full advantage of his move to Port and priced at $285.2k he could prove to be a decent scoring mid pricer. Currently sitting in 3.48% of teams McCarthy has scored 96, 75, 80 in his past 3 games. I’m hopeful that McCarthy can score quite well this season, he’s been relatively consistent this season averaging 83.67. Now I wouldn’t advise trading him in at the moment, and realistically I’ll wait till he maxes out in price before trading to one of the best performing super premo mid. His team mate Brad Ebert has had a better start to the season but was also initially priced around $50k more (Not to be confused with Brett Ebert who also plays for port and is a real smokie at .49% of teams, with a 3 round average of….. wait for it….0). Ebert (Brad) is averaging 111 this season, and if you were one of the 13,555 (5.2%) coaches that selected him you’ll be reaping some good points and subsequent price rises. Ebert’s hit the tonne 3 from 3 this season and could prove to be a real differential. So enough about Port, let’s move on to… some more… interesting players.

Brent Stanton is far from what his BS initials suggest. Sitting in 3.65% of teams, Stanton has pumped out a 153, 116 & 93 in his opening three games. Last year Stants averaged just under 107 from 20 games. This season Stants has been earning 1.31 points per minute spent on the ground…Boom! Put Stants on your watch list because if he comes close to maintaining his current average of 120.67 you won’t wanna miss that boat.

Our next smokie is Scott Selwood. Averaging only 87 last season Scotty wouldn’t have even attracted the eyes of fantasy coacher, however, his recent form has meant that he is firmly on our radar. Before the weekend Selwood found himself in only 1.48% of teams, but this has almost doubled (2.37%). Backing up his 131 in round 2 with a 150 this week. averaging 126.3, Selwood could prove to be your smoking gun this season, especially if you get on early.

Fyfe’s shoulder injury on the weekend got us all looking for a replacement. Two smokies that I had on my list are now attracting a lot of fantasy attention. These are: Mitch Robinson and Brendan Whitecross. Robo sits in 4.32% of teams (mine included) and has averaged a touch over 103 this season. After a big score of 127 on the weekend, Robbo has been traded in by 1700 people so far as direct replacements for Fyfe. Another option for Fyfe is Whitecross who is currently owned by 2.43% of coaches, however, this is rising. Whitecross is currently accounting for just over 8% of incoming trades (with 5% coming from trading Fyfe). The third and final option is another Carlton boy in Jarrad Waite. Waite sits in only 3.14% of teams and is averaging a touch under 100 points so far this season (partly due to a 60 against Richmond in his opening round).

A DPP link could also allow you to trade Fyfe to Michael Barlow. Barlow is currently owned by 3.92% of teams. Barlow has had two sub affected scores but has been earning 1.12 points per minute he spends on the ground, the highest of any Freo player. On the weekend Barlow scored a solid 99 from his first game without the vest. He has a BE of 91 this week and it may be the perfect chance to jump on the Barlow Bullet as he shoots out of this smoking gun and into your team. Fingers crossed Fyfe pulls up all right and the majority of coaches reverse their trades because these smokies, may not be smokies for much longer.

But Slight, “All these smokies are good but I want a real smoking gun. I want that player that every man and his dog aren’t trading in. I want a smokie that can win me the car.” Righto, Righto, I hear ya. Our Triple S (Slights Super Smokie) found himself smashing a 139 against the reigning premiers. This Triple S played his first game for the season on the weekend and as a result has only been spotted by 0.94% of teams. Given these all may be auto-fill teams, Jack Ziebell should be placed on your watch list. No he won’t score 4 goals every week, but maybe he will. That’s the beauty of a Triple S, you don’t know. Trading him in this week is a very risky move, and personally I won’t do it, but if you risk it you may in fact get that biscuit.

There you go, our first look at some smokies. From this list the only players I’m considering bringing in is Whitecross, or maybe Barlow, for Fyfe (due to the fact that I already have Robbo) and I feel that Whitecross could be the Shiel of last year. So, that’s where I’m at this week and our smokies will become more important as the season progresses. Hit me up on twitter at @SlightHawk or in the comments below. Oh and shout out to my boys in the dream-stats.com div 1 league; sitting 2^nd overall. Number 1 spot is in our sights, or should I say Slights.